Drinking the polling Kool-Aid

How incredible is this: Andrew Kohut, the president of the Pew Research Center, has a piece in the NYT that Obama leads McCain 52 to 36%.

No. Friggin'. Way. Look at Pew's track record and it's not that accurate.

Slate staff picks Obama for president, thankfully they've been wrong for the past two elections

In a meaningless exercise to further pay homage to The One, Slate asks its staff members who their pick for president will be and why. Well, Obama/Biden wins in a landslide of 55 out of 57 votes.

The good news is that in 2000 the staff picked Al Gore and 2004 John Kerry. So that leaves a 0-3 record for this fine publication.

Obama foretells victory

Remember when Obama gave a speech at a podium with a mock presidential seal? The media had a frenzy. Now we have Obama acting like the race is over, talking about his transition in the White House. His campaign is spending tons of money in preparation of the election night party in Chicago.

Several polls have Obama in the lead with as high as 10 points. But there are polls with the delta of around five points or less. The race is most definitely not over.

Biden vs. Palin, the poll story

Everyone is looking at poll numbers to gauge the public's reaction to the V.P. debate. Ezra Klein of The American Prospect referenced CNN and CBS polls to claim victory for Obama on both debates: 2-0.

Never mind that Drudge Report readers overwhelmingly think Palin won. FOX News readers also declare Palin the winner.

The new battleground states

Richard Baehr of American Thinker gives a good rundown of the battleground states from the latest polls. He points out that Obama has missed his red state targets:

Many of Obama's once-targeted red states are now safely in McCain's corner. These include Montana (3), North Dakota (3) Alaska (3), and Georgia (15). North Carolina (15), Indiana (11) and Missouri (11) do not look too promising for Obama either. Of course, if the race breaks hard for either candidate in the last month, such that the current near-deadlock in the national popular vote becomes a 5% or greater margin of victory, then some of the second tier targets may come into play. But they won't matter. If Obama opens up a 5% national lead, he will win Ohio, and Virginia and Colorado. If McCain opens up a similar sized national lead, he probably wins Michigan and Pennsylvania. Neither candidate would need any other states from the other party's column -- these would amount to gravy, allowing the winner to claim a mandate.

The Obama campaign has failed in executing its red state attacks. Its field volunteers, mainly from out-of-state, are finding trouble connecting to local voters. With the economy going south, McCain needs a message of sympathy and not just repeating the positives. Voters have lost their savings and jobs because of the recent economic downturn, and they do not wish to hear that the "fundamentals are strong."

Blue states becoming purple

McCain enjoyed a bit of post-convention bounce in the polls, but not enough to flip any blue states to red. However, recent polling suggests that McCain is turning red states even redder and blue states purpler.

Palin boosting other GOP candidates

The addition of Sarah Palin to the GOP ticket is also improving Republican congressional candidates' numbers:

Republicans say the landscape has changed in the past few weeks, reflected by the party's improved standing in generic ballot tests. Through July, Democrats led the RCP Generic Congressional Average by 12 points. Today, that lead is down to 3.6 points.

Palin is probably the most important and impacting running mate in American history. The Democrats not only have to worry about the W.H. race, but now also in Congress. Their goal to expand their numbers in Congress may be in jeopardy.

McCain overtakes Obama in polls

The post-convention bounce is giving McCain as much as 10 points ahead of Obama in a USA Today/Gallup poll, thanks to Gov. Sarah Palin.

The addition of Palin to the GOP ticket is nullifying Obama's campaign messages. First, Obama's pick of career politician, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, not only shows his insecurity about global political experience, but raises doubts about how serious he is for "change." Second, he completely dissed Hillary to be considered V.P., then allowed her to hijack the Democratic Convention, proves to create deeper wounds between the two camps, and especially disillusioned women voters. Third, Obama/Biden run into obstacles in defining their message for the middle class because Palin is living proof of a middle class American.

If McCain can maintain this momentum in the next several weeks, we may see Obama's campaign forced to make more mistakes and eventually self implode.